| """ | |
| Basic statistics module. | |
| This module provides functions for calculating statistics of data, including | |
| averages, variance, and standard deviation. | |
| Calculating averages | |
| -------------------- | |
| ================== ================================================== | |
| Function Description | |
| ================== ================================================== | |
| mean Arithmetic mean (average) of data. | |
| fmean Fast, floating-point arithmetic mean. | |
| geometric_mean Geometric mean of data. | |
| harmonic_mean Harmonic mean of data. | |
| median Median (middle value) of data. | |
| median_low Low median of data. | |
| median_high High median of data. | |
| median_grouped Median, or 50th percentile, of grouped data. | |
| mode Mode (most common value) of data. | |
| multimode List of modes (most common values of data). | |
| quantiles Divide data into intervals with equal probability. | |
| ================== ================================================== | |
| Calculate the arithmetic mean ("the average") of data: | |
| >>> mean([-1.0, 2.5, 3.25, 5.75]) | |
| 2.625 | |
| Calculate the standard median of discrete data: | |
| >>> median([2, 3, 4, 5]) | |
| 3.5 | |
| Calculate the median, or 50th percentile, of data grouped into class intervals | |
| centred on the data values provided. E.g. if your data points are rounded to | |
| the nearest whole number: | |
| >>> median_grouped([2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4]) #doctest: +ELLIPSIS | |
| 2.8333333333... | |
| This should be interpreted in this way: you have two data points in the class | |
| interval 1.5-2.5, three data points in the class interval 2.5-3.5, and one in | |
| the class interval 3.5-4.5. The median of these data points is 2.8333... | |
| Calculating variability or spread | |
| --------------------------------- | |
| ================== ============================================= | |
| Function Description | |
| ================== ============================================= | |
| pvariance Population variance of data. | |
| variance Sample variance of data. | |
| pstdev Population standard deviation of data. | |
| stdev Sample standard deviation of data. | |
| ================== ============================================= | |
| Calculate the standard deviation of sample data: | |
| >>> stdev([2.5, 3.25, 5.5, 11.25, 11.75]) #doctest: +ELLIPSIS | |
| 4.38961843444... | |
| If you have previously calculated the mean, you can pass it as the optional | |
| second argument to the four "spread" functions to avoid recalculating it: | |
| >>> data = [1, 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6] | |
| >>> mu = mean(data) | |
| >>> pvariance(data, mu) | |
| 2.5 | |
| Statistics for relations between two inputs | |
| ------------------------------------------- | |
| ================== ==================================================== | |
| Function Description | |
| ================== ==================================================== | |
| covariance Sample covariance for two variables. | |
| correlation Pearson's correlation coefficient for two variables. | |
| linear_regression Intercept and slope for simple linear regression. | |
| ================== ==================================================== | |
| Calculate covariance, Pearson's correlation, and simple linear regression | |
| for two inputs: | |
| >>> x = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9] | |
| >>> y = [1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3] | |
| >>> covariance(x, y) | |
| 0.75 | |
| >>> correlation(x, y) #doctest: +ELLIPSIS | |
| 0.31622776601... | |
| >>> linear_regression(x, y) #doctest: | |
| LinearRegression(slope=0.1, intercept=1.5) | |
| Exceptions | |
| ---------- | |
| A single exception is defined: StatisticsError is a subclass of ValueError. | |
| """ | |
| __all__ = [ | |
| 'NormalDist', | |
| 'StatisticsError', | |
| 'correlation', | |
| 'covariance', | |
| 'fmean', | |
| 'geometric_mean', | |
| 'harmonic_mean', | |
| 'kde', | |
| 'kde_random', | |
| 'linear_regression', | |
| 'mean', | |
| 'median', | |
| 'median_grouped', | |
| 'median_high', | |
| 'median_low', | |
| 'mode', | |
| 'multimode', | |
| 'pstdev', | |
| 'pvariance', | |
| 'quantiles', | |
| 'stdev', | |
| 'variance', | |
| ] | |
| import math | |
| import numbers | |
| import random | |
| import sys | |
| from fractions import Fraction | |
| from decimal import Decimal | |
| from itertools import compress, count, groupby, repeat | |
| from bisect import bisect_left, bisect_right | |
| from math import hypot, sqrt, fabs, exp, erfc, log, fsum, sumprod | |
| from math import isfinite, isinf, pi, sin, cosh | |
| from math import sinpi, cospi, tanpi, asinpi, acospi, atanpi | |
| from functools import reduce | |
| from operator import itemgetter | |
| from collections import Counter, namedtuple, defaultdict | |
| _SQRT2 = sqrt(2.0) | |
| _SQRT2PI = float.fromhex('0x1.40d931ff62706p+1') # Correctly rounded sqrt(2*pi) | |
| _random = random | |
| ## Exceptions ############################################################## | |
| class StatisticsError(ValueError): | |
| pass | |
| ## Measures of central tendency (averages) ################################# | |
| def mean(data): | |
| """Return the sample arithmetic mean of data. | |
| >>> mean([1, 2, 3, 4, 4]) | |
| 2.8 | |
| >>> from fractions import Fraction as F | |
| >>> mean([F(3, 7), F(1, 21), F(5, 3), F(1, 3)]) | |
| Fraction(13, 21) | |
| >>> from decimal import Decimal as D | |
| >>> mean([D("0.5"), D("0.75"), D("0.625"), D("0.375")]) | |
| Decimal('0.5625') | |
| If ``data`` is empty, StatisticsError will be raised. | |
| """ | |
| T, total, n = _sum(data) | |
| if n < 1: | |
| raise StatisticsError('mean requires at least one data point') | |
| return _convert(total / n, T) | |
| def fmean(data, weights=None): | |
| """Convert data to floats and compute the arithmetic mean. | |
| This runs faster than the mean() function and it always returns a float. | |
| If the input dataset is empty, it raises a StatisticsError. | |
| >>> fmean([3.5, 4.0, 5.25]) | |
| 4.25 | |
| """ | |
| if weights is None: | |
| try: | |
| n = len(data) | |
| except TypeError: | |
| # Handle iterators that do not define __len__(). | |
| counter = count(1) | |
| total = fsum(compress(data, counter)) | |
| n = next(counter) - 1 | |
| else: | |
| total = fsum(data) | |
| if not n: | |
| raise StatisticsError('fmean requires at least one data point') | |
| return total / n | |
| if not isinstance(weights, (list, tuple)): | |
| weights = list(weights) | |
| try: | |
| num = sumprod(data, weights) | |
| except ValueError: | |
| raise StatisticsError('data and weights must be the same length') | |
| den = fsum(weights) | |
| if not den: | |
| raise StatisticsError('sum of weights must be non-zero') | |
| return num / den | |
| def geometric_mean(data): | |
| """Convert data to floats and compute the geometric mean. | |
| Raises a StatisticsError if the input dataset is empty | |
| or if it contains a negative value. | |
| Returns zero if the product of inputs is zero. | |
| No special efforts are made to achieve exact results. | |
| (However, this may change in the future.) | |
| >>> round(geometric_mean([54, 24, 36]), 9) | |
| 36.0 | |
| """ | |
| n = 0 | |
| found_zero = False | |
| def count_positive(iterable): | |
| nonlocal n, found_zero | |
| for n, x in enumerate(iterable, start=1): | |
| if x > 0.0 or math.isnan(x): | |
| yield x | |
| elif x == 0.0: | |
| found_zero = True | |
| else: | |
| raise StatisticsError(f'No negative inputs allowed: {x!r}') | |
| total = fsum(map(log, count_positive(data))) | |
| if not n: | |
| raise StatisticsError('Must have a non-empty dataset') | |
| if math.isnan(total): | |
| return math.nan | |
| if found_zero: | |
| return math.nan if total == math.inf else 0.0 | |
| return exp(total / n) | |
| def harmonic_mean(data, weights=None): | |
| """Return the harmonic mean of data. | |
| The harmonic mean is the reciprocal of the arithmetic mean of the | |
| reciprocals of the data. It can be used for averaging ratios or | |
| rates, for example speeds. | |
| Suppose a car travels 40 km/hr for 5 km and then speeds-up to | |
| 60 km/hr for another 5 km. What is the average speed? | |
| >>> harmonic_mean([40, 60]) | |
| 48.0 | |
| Suppose a car travels 40 km/hr for 5 km, and when traffic clears, | |
| speeds-up to 60 km/hr for the remaining 30 km of the journey. What | |
| is the average speed? | |
| >>> harmonic_mean([40, 60], weights=[5, 30]) | |
| 56.0 | |
| If ``data`` is empty, or any element is less than zero, | |
| ``harmonic_mean`` will raise ``StatisticsError``. | |
| """ | |
| if iter(data) is data: | |
| data = list(data) | |
| errmsg = 'harmonic mean does not support negative values' | |
| n = len(data) | |
| if n < 1: | |
| raise StatisticsError('harmonic_mean requires at least one data point') | |
| elif n == 1 and weights is None: | |
| x = data[0] | |
| if isinstance(x, (numbers.Real, Decimal)): | |
| if x < 0: | |
| raise StatisticsError(errmsg) | |
| return x | |
| else: | |
| raise TypeError('unsupported type') | |
| if weights is None: | |
| weights = repeat(1, n) | |
| sum_weights = n | |
| else: | |
| if iter(weights) is weights: | |
| weights = list(weights) | |
| if len(weights) != n: | |
| raise StatisticsError('Number of weights does not match data size') | |
| _, sum_weights, _ = _sum(w for w in _fail_neg(weights, errmsg)) | |
| try: | |
| data = _fail_neg(data, errmsg) | |
| T, total, count = _sum(w / x if w else 0 for w, x in zip(weights, data)) | |
| except ZeroDivisionError: | |
| return 0 | |
| if total <= 0: | |
| raise StatisticsError('Weighted sum must be positive') | |
| return _convert(sum_weights / total, T) | |
| def median(data): | |
| """Return the median (middle value) of numeric data. | |
| When the number of data points is odd, return the middle data point. | |
| When the number of data points is even, the median is interpolated by | |
| taking the average of the two middle values: | |
| >>> median([1, 3, 5]) | |
| 3 | |
| >>> median([1, 3, 5, 7]) | |
| 4.0 | |
| """ | |
| data = sorted(data) | |
| n = len(data) | |
| if n == 0: | |
| raise StatisticsError("no median for empty data") | |
| if n % 2 == 1: | |
| return data[n // 2] | |
| else: | |
| i = n // 2 | |
| return (data[i - 1] + data[i]) / 2 | |
| def median_low(data): | |
| """Return the low median of numeric data. | |
| When the number of data points is odd, the middle value is returned. | |
| When it is even, the smaller of the two middle values is returned. | |
| >>> median_low([1, 3, 5]) | |
| 3 | |
| >>> median_low([1, 3, 5, 7]) | |
| 3 | |
| """ | |
| # Potentially the sorting step could be replaced with a quickselect. | |
| # However, it would require an excellent implementation to beat our | |
| # highly optimized builtin sort. | |
| data = sorted(data) | |
| n = len(data) | |
| if n == 0: | |
| raise StatisticsError("no median for empty data") | |
| if n % 2 == 1: | |
| return data[n // 2] | |
| else: | |
| return data[n // 2 - 1] | |
| def median_high(data): | |
| """Return the high median of data. | |
| When the number of data points is odd, the middle value is returned. | |
| When it is even, the larger of the two middle values is returned. | |
| >>> median_high([1, 3, 5]) | |
| 3 | |
| >>> median_high([1, 3, 5, 7]) | |
| 5 | |
| """ | |
| data = sorted(data) | |
| n = len(data) | |
| if n == 0: | |
| raise StatisticsError("no median for empty data") | |
| return data[n // 2] | |
| def median_grouped(data, interval=1.0): | |
| """Estimates the median for numeric data binned around the midpoints | |
| of consecutive, fixed-width intervals. | |
| The *data* can be any iterable of numeric data with each value being | |
| exactly the midpoint of a bin. At least one value must be present. | |
| The *interval* is width of each bin. | |
| For example, demographic information may have been summarized into | |
| consecutive ten-year age groups with each group being represented | |
| by the 5-year midpoints of the intervals: | |
| >>> demographics = Counter({ | |
| ... 25: 172, # 20 to 30 years old | |
| ... 35: 484, # 30 to 40 years old | |
| ... 45: 387, # 40 to 50 years old | |
| ... 55: 22, # 50 to 60 years old | |
| ... 65: 6, # 60 to 70 years old | |
| ... }) | |
| The 50th percentile (median) is the 536th person out of the 1071 | |
| member cohort. That person is in the 30 to 40 year old age group. | |
| The regular median() function would assume that everyone in the | |
| tricenarian age group was exactly 35 years old. A more tenable | |
| assumption is that the 484 members of that age group are evenly | |
| distributed between 30 and 40. For that, we use median_grouped(). | |
| >>> data = list(demographics.elements()) | |
| >>> median(data) | |
| 35 | |
| >>> round(median_grouped(data, interval=10), 1) | |
| 37.5 | |
| The caller is responsible for making sure the data points are separated | |
| by exact multiples of *interval*. This is essential for getting a | |
| correct result. The function does not check this precondition. | |
| Inputs may be any numeric type that can be coerced to a float during | |
| the interpolation step. | |
| """ | |
| data = sorted(data) | |
| n = len(data) | |
| if not n: | |
| raise StatisticsError("no median for empty data") | |
| # Find the value at the midpoint. Remember this corresponds to the | |
| # midpoint of the class interval. | |
| x = data[n // 2] | |
| # Using O(log n) bisection, find where all the x values occur in the data. | |
| # All x will lie within data[i:j]. | |
| i = bisect_left(data, x) | |
| j = bisect_right(data, x, lo=i) | |
| # Coerce to floats, raising a TypeError if not possible | |
| try: | |
| interval = float(interval) | |
| x = float(x) | |
| except ValueError: | |
| raise TypeError(f'Value cannot be converted to a float') | |
| # Interpolate the median using the formula found at: | |
| # https://www.cuemath.com/data/median-of-grouped-data/ | |
| L = x - interval / 2.0 # Lower limit of the median interval | |
| cf = i # Cumulative frequency of the preceding interval | |
| f = j - i # Number of elements in the median internal | |
| return L + interval * (n / 2 - cf) / f | |
| def mode(data): | |
| """Return the most common data point from discrete or nominal data. | |
| ``mode`` assumes discrete data, and returns a single value. This is the | |
| standard treatment of the mode as commonly taught in schools: | |
| >>> mode([1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4]) | |
| 3 | |
| This also works with nominal (non-numeric) data: | |
| >>> mode(["red", "blue", "blue", "red", "green", "red", "red"]) | |
| 'red' | |
| If there are multiple modes with same frequency, return the first one | |
| encountered: | |
| >>> mode(['red', 'red', 'green', 'blue', 'blue']) | |
| 'red' | |
| If *data* is empty, ``mode``, raises StatisticsError. | |
| """ | |
| pairs = Counter(iter(data)).most_common(1) | |
| try: | |
| return pairs[0][0] | |
| except IndexError: | |
| raise StatisticsError('no mode for empty data') from None | |
| def multimode(data): | |
| """Return a list of the most frequently occurring values. | |
| Will return more than one result if there are multiple modes | |
| or an empty list if *data* is empty. | |
| >>> multimode('aabbbbbbbbcc') | |
| ['b'] | |
| >>> multimode('aabbbbccddddeeffffgg') | |
| ['b', 'd', 'f'] | |
| >>> multimode('') | |
| [] | |
| """ | |
| counts = Counter(iter(data)) | |
| if not counts: | |
| return [] | |
| maxcount = max(counts.values()) | |
| return [value for value, count in counts.items() if count == maxcount] | |
| ## Measures of spread ###################################################### | |
| def variance(data, xbar=None): | |
| """Return the sample variance of data. | |
| data should be an iterable of Real-valued numbers, with at least two | |
| values. The optional argument xbar, if given, should be the mean of | |
| the data. If it is missing or None, the mean is automatically calculated. | |
| Use this function when your data is a sample from a population. To | |
| calculate the variance from the entire population, see ``pvariance``. | |
| Examples: | |
| >>> data = [2.75, 1.75, 1.25, 0.25, 0.5, 1.25, 3.5] | |
| >>> variance(data) | |
| 1.3720238095238095 | |
| If you have already calculated the mean of your data, you can pass it as | |
| the optional second argument ``xbar`` to avoid recalculating it: | |
| >>> m = mean(data) | |
| >>> variance(data, m) | |
| 1.3720238095238095 | |
| This function does not check that ``xbar`` is actually the mean of | |
| ``data``. Giving arbitrary values for ``xbar`` may lead to invalid or | |
| impossible results. | |
| Decimals and Fractions are supported: | |
| >>> from decimal import Decimal as D | |
| >>> variance([D("27.5"), D("30.25"), D("30.25"), D("34.5"), D("41.75")]) | |
| Decimal('31.01875') | |
| >>> from fractions import Fraction as F | |
| >>> variance([F(1, 6), F(1, 2), F(5, 3)]) | |
| Fraction(67, 108) | |
| """ | |
| # http://mathworld.wolfram.com/SampleVariance.html | |
| T, ss, c, n = _ss(data, xbar) | |
| if n < 2: | |
| raise StatisticsError('variance requires at least two data points') | |
| return _convert(ss / (n - 1), T) | |
| def pvariance(data, mu=None): | |
| """Return the population variance of ``data``. | |
| data should be a sequence or iterable of Real-valued numbers, with at least one | |
| value. The optional argument mu, if given, should be the mean of | |
| the data. If it is missing or None, the mean is automatically calculated. | |
| Use this function to calculate the variance from the entire population. | |
| To estimate the variance from a sample, the ``variance`` function is | |
| usually a better choice. | |
| Examples: | |
| >>> data = [0.0, 0.25, 0.25, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.75, 3.25] | |
| >>> pvariance(data) | |
| 1.25 | |
| If you have already calculated the mean of the data, you can pass it as | |
| the optional second argument to avoid recalculating it: | |
| >>> mu = mean(data) | |
| >>> pvariance(data, mu) | |
| 1.25 | |
| Decimals and Fractions are supported: | |
| >>> from decimal import Decimal as D | |
| >>> pvariance([D("27.5"), D("30.25"), D("30.25"), D("34.5"), D("41.75")]) | |
| Decimal('24.815') | |
| >>> from fractions import Fraction as F | |
| >>> pvariance([F(1, 4), F(5, 4), F(1, 2)]) | |
| Fraction(13, 72) | |
| """ | |
| # http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Variance.html | |
| T, ss, c, n = _ss(data, mu) | |
| if n < 1: | |
| raise StatisticsError('pvariance requires at least one data point') | |
| return _convert(ss / n, T) | |
| def stdev(data, xbar=None): | |
| """Return the square root of the sample variance. | |
| See ``variance`` for arguments and other details. | |
| >>> stdev([1.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.75, 3.25, 4.75]) | |
| 1.0810874155219827 | |
| """ | |
| T, ss, c, n = _ss(data, xbar) | |
| if n < 2: | |
| raise StatisticsError('stdev requires at least two data points') | |
| mss = ss / (n - 1) | |
| try: | |
| mss_numerator = mss.numerator | |
| mss_denominator = mss.denominator | |
| except AttributeError: | |
| raise ValueError('inf or nan encountered in data') | |
| if issubclass(T, Decimal): | |
| return _decimal_sqrt_of_frac(mss_numerator, mss_denominator) | |
| return _float_sqrt_of_frac(mss_numerator, mss_denominator) | |
| def pstdev(data, mu=None): | |
| """Return the square root of the population variance. | |
| See ``pvariance`` for arguments and other details. | |
| >>> pstdev([1.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.75, 3.25, 4.75]) | |
| 0.986893273527251 | |
| """ | |
| T, ss, c, n = _ss(data, mu) | |
| if n < 1: | |
| raise StatisticsError('pstdev requires at least one data point') | |
| mss = ss / n | |
| try: | |
| mss_numerator = mss.numerator | |
| mss_denominator = mss.denominator | |
| except AttributeError: | |
| raise ValueError('inf or nan encountered in data') | |
| if issubclass(T, Decimal): | |
| return _decimal_sqrt_of_frac(mss_numerator, mss_denominator) | |
| return _float_sqrt_of_frac(mss_numerator, mss_denominator) | |
| ## Statistics for relations between two inputs ############################# | |
| def covariance(x, y, /): | |
| """Covariance | |
| Return the sample covariance of two inputs *x* and *y*. Covariance | |
| is a measure of the joint variability of two inputs. | |
| >>> x = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9] | |
| >>> y = [1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3] | |
| >>> covariance(x, y) | |
| 0.75 | |
| >>> z = [9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1] | |
| >>> covariance(x, z) | |
| -7.5 | |
| >>> covariance(z, x) | |
| -7.5 | |
| """ | |
| # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covariance | |
| n = len(x) | |
| if len(y) != n: | |
| raise StatisticsError('covariance requires that both inputs have same number of data points') | |
| if n < 2: | |
| raise StatisticsError('covariance requires at least two data points') | |
| xbar = fsum(x) / n | |
| ybar = fsum(y) / n | |
| sxy = sumprod((xi - xbar for xi in x), (yi - ybar for yi in y)) | |
| return sxy / (n - 1) | |
| def correlation(x, y, /, *, method='linear'): | |
| """Pearson's correlation coefficient | |
| Return the Pearson's correlation coefficient for two inputs. Pearson's | |
| correlation coefficient *r* takes values between -1 and +1. It measures | |
| the strength and direction of a linear relationship. | |
| >>> x = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9] | |
| >>> y = [9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1] | |
| >>> correlation(x, x) | |
| 1.0 | |
| >>> correlation(x, y) | |
| -1.0 | |
| If *method* is "ranked", computes Spearman's rank correlation coefficient | |
| for two inputs. The data is replaced by ranks. Ties are averaged | |
| so that equal values receive the same rank. The resulting coefficient | |
| measures the strength of a monotonic relationship. | |
| Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is appropriate for ordinal | |
| data or for continuous data that doesn't meet the linear proportion | |
| requirement for Pearson's correlation coefficient. | |
| """ | |
| # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_correlation_coefficient | |
| # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spearman%27s_rank_correlation_coefficient | |
| n = len(x) | |
| if len(y) != n: | |
| raise StatisticsError('correlation requires that both inputs have same number of data points') | |
| if n < 2: | |
| raise StatisticsError('correlation requires at least two data points') | |
| if method not in {'linear', 'ranked'}: | |
| raise ValueError(f'Unknown method: {method!r}') | |
| if method == 'ranked': | |
| start = (n - 1) / -2 # Center rankings around zero | |
| x = _rank(x, start=start) | |
| y = _rank(y, start=start) | |
| else: | |
| xbar = fsum(x) / n | |
| ybar = fsum(y) / n | |
| x = [xi - xbar for xi in x] | |
| y = [yi - ybar for yi in y] | |
| sxy = sumprod(x, y) | |
| sxx = sumprod(x, x) | |
| syy = sumprod(y, y) | |
| try: | |
| return sxy / _sqrtprod(sxx, syy) | |
| except ZeroDivisionError: | |
| raise StatisticsError('at least one of the inputs is constant') | |
| LinearRegression = namedtuple('LinearRegression', ('slope', 'intercept')) | |
| def linear_regression(x, y, /, *, proportional=False): | |
| """Slope and intercept for simple linear regression. | |
| Return the slope and intercept of simple linear regression | |
| parameters estimated using ordinary least squares. Simple linear | |
| regression describes relationship between an independent variable | |
| *x* and a dependent variable *y* in terms of a linear function: | |
| y = slope * x + intercept + noise | |
| where *slope* and *intercept* are the regression parameters that are | |
| estimated, and noise represents the variability of the data that was | |
| not explained by the linear regression (it is equal to the | |
| difference between predicted and actual values of the dependent | |
| variable). | |
| The parameters are returned as a named tuple. | |
| >>> x = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] | |
| >>> noise = NormalDist().samples(5, seed=42) | |
| >>> y = [3 * x[i] + 2 + noise[i] for i in range(5)] | |
| >>> linear_regression(x, y) #doctest: +ELLIPSIS | |
| LinearRegression(slope=3.17495..., intercept=1.00925...) | |
| If *proportional* is true, the independent variable *x* and the | |
| dependent variable *y* are assumed to be directly proportional. | |
| The data is fit to a line passing through the origin. | |
| Since the *intercept* will always be 0.0, the underlying linear | |
| function simplifies to: | |
| y = slope * x + noise | |
| >>> y = [3 * x[i] + noise[i] for i in range(5)] | |
| >>> linear_regression(x, y, proportional=True) #doctest: +ELLIPSIS | |
| LinearRegression(slope=2.90475..., intercept=0.0) | |
| """ | |
| # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_linear_regression | |
| n = len(x) | |
| if len(y) != n: | |
| raise StatisticsError('linear regression requires that both inputs have same number of data points') | |
| if n < 2: | |
| raise StatisticsError('linear regression requires at least two data points') | |
| if not proportional: | |
| xbar = fsum(x) / n | |
| ybar = fsum(y) / n | |
| x = [xi - xbar for xi in x] # List because used three times below | |
| y = (yi - ybar for yi in y) # Generator because only used once below | |
| sxy = sumprod(x, y) + 0.0 # Add zero to coerce result to a float | |
| sxx = sumprod(x, x) | |
| try: | |
| slope = sxy / sxx # equivalent to: covariance(x, y) / variance(x) | |
| except ZeroDivisionError: | |
| raise StatisticsError('x is constant') | |
| intercept = 0.0 if proportional else ybar - slope * xbar | |
| return LinearRegression(slope=slope, intercept=intercept) | |
| ## Kernel Density Estimation ############################################### | |
| _kernel_specs = {} | |
| def register(*kernels): | |
| "Load the kernel's pdf, cdf, invcdf, and support into _kernel_specs." | |
| def deco(builder): | |
| spec = dict(zip(('pdf', 'cdf', 'invcdf', 'support'), builder())) | |
| for kernel in kernels: | |
| _kernel_specs[kernel] = spec | |
| return builder | |
| return deco | |
| @register('normal', 'gauss') | |
| def normal_kernel(): | |
| sqrt2pi = _SQRT2PI | |
| neg_sqrt2 = -_SQRT2 | |
| pdf = lambda t: exp(-1/2 * t * t) / sqrt2pi | |
| cdf = lambda t: 1/2 * erfc(t / neg_sqrt2) | |
| invcdf = lambda t: _normal_dist_inv_cdf(t, 0.0, 1.0) | |
| support = None | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| @register('logistic') | |
| def logistic_kernel(): | |
| # 1.0 / (exp(t) + 2.0 + exp(-t)) | |
| pdf = lambda t: 1/2 / (1.0 + cosh(t)) | |
| cdf = lambda t: 1.0 - 1.0 / (exp(t) + 1.0) | |
| invcdf = lambda p: log(p / (1.0 - p)) | |
| support = None | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| @register('sigmoid') | |
| def sigmoid_kernel(): | |
| # (2/pi) / (exp(t) + exp(-t)) | |
| recip_pi = 1 / pi | |
| pdf = lambda t: recip_pi / cosh(t) | |
| cdf = lambda t: 2.0 * atanpi(exp(t)) | |
| invcdf = lambda p: log(tanpi(p * 0.5)) | |
| support = None | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| @register('rectangular', 'uniform') | |
| def rectangular_kernel(): | |
| pdf = lambda t: 1/2 | |
| cdf = lambda t: 1/2 * t + 1/2 | |
| invcdf = lambda p: 2.0 * p - 1.0 | |
| support = 1.0 | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| @register('triangular') | |
| def triangular_kernel(): | |
| pdf = lambda t: 1.0 - abs(t) | |
| cdf = lambda t: t*t * (1/2 if t < 0.0 else -1/2) + t + 1/2 | |
| invcdf = lambda p: sqrt(2.0*p) - 1.0 if p < 1/2 else 1.0 - sqrt(2.0 - 2.0*p) | |
| support = 1.0 | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| @register('parabolic', 'epanechnikov') | |
| def parabolic_kernel(): | |
| pdf = lambda t: 3/4 * (1.0 - t * t) | |
| cdf = lambda t: sumprod((-1/4, 3/4, 1/2), (t**3, t, 1.0)) | |
| invcdf = lambda p: 2.0 * cospi((acospi(2.0 * p - 1.0) + 1.0) / 3.0) | |
| support = 1.0 | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| def _newton_raphson(f_inv_estimate, f, f_prime, tolerance=1e-12): | |
| def f_inv(y): | |
| "Return x such that f(x) ≈ y within the specified tolerance." | |
| x = f_inv_estimate(y) | |
| while abs(diff := f(x) - y) > tolerance: | |
| x -= diff / f_prime(x) | |
| return x | |
| return f_inv | |
| def _quartic_invcdf_estimate(p): | |
| # A handrolled piecewise approximation. There is no magic here. | |
| sign, p = (1.0, p) if p <= 1/2 else (-1.0, 1.0 - p) | |
| if p < 0.0106: | |
| return ((2.0 * p) ** 0.3838 - 1.0) * sign | |
| x = (2.0 * p) ** 0.4258865685331 - 1.0 | |
| if p < 0.499: | |
| x += 0.026818732 * sin(7.101753784 * p + 2.73230839482953) | |
| return x * sign | |
| @register('quartic', 'biweight') | |
| def quartic_kernel(): | |
| pdf = lambda t: 15/16 * (u := 1.0 - t * t) * u | |
| cdf = lambda t: sumprod((3/16, -5/8, 15/16, 1/2), | |
| (t**5, t**3, t, 1.0)) | |
| invcdf = _newton_raphson(_quartic_invcdf_estimate, f=cdf, f_prime=pdf) | |
| support = 1.0 | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| def _triweight_invcdf_estimate(p): | |
| # A handrolled piecewise approximation. There is no magic here. | |
| sign, p = (1.0, p) if p <= 1/2 else (-1.0, 1.0 - p) | |
| x = (2.0 * p) ** 0.3400218741872791 - 1.0 | |
| if 0.00001 < p < 0.499: | |
| x -= 0.033 * sinpi(2.14 * (p - 0.035)) | |
| return x * sign | |
| @register('triweight') | |
| def triweight_kernel(): | |
| pdf = lambda t: 35/32 * (1.0 - t * t) ** 3 | |
| cdf = lambda t: sumprod((-5/32, 21/32, -35/32, 35/32, 1/2), | |
| (t**7, t**5, t**3, t, 1.0)) | |
| invcdf = _newton_raphson(_triweight_invcdf_estimate, f=cdf, f_prime=pdf) | |
| support = 1.0 | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| @register('cosine') | |
| def cosine_kernel(): | |
| c1 = pi / 4 | |
| pdf = lambda t: c1 * cospi(0.5 * t) | |
| cdf = lambda t: 1/2 * sinpi(0.5 * t) + 1/2 | |
| invcdf = lambda p: 2.0 * asinpi(2.0 * p - 1.0) | |
| support = 1.0 | |
| return pdf, cdf, invcdf, support | |
| del register, normal_kernel, logistic_kernel, sigmoid_kernel | |
| del rectangular_kernel, triangular_kernel, parabolic_kernel | |
| del quartic_kernel, triweight_kernel, cosine_kernel | |
| def kde(data, h, kernel='normal', *, cumulative=False): | |
| """Kernel Density Estimation: Create a continuous probability density | |
| function or cumulative distribution function from discrete samples. | |
| The basic idea is to smooth the data using a kernel function | |
| to help draw inferences about a population from a sample. | |
| The degree of smoothing is controlled by the scaling parameter h | |
| which is called the bandwidth. Smaller values emphasize local | |
| features while larger values give smoother results. | |
| The kernel determines the relative weights of the sample data | |
| points. Generally, the choice of kernel shape does not matter | |
| as much as the more influential bandwidth smoothing parameter. | |
| Kernels that give some weight to every sample point: | |
| normal (gauss) | |
| logistic | |
| sigmoid | |
| Kernels that only give weight to sample points within | |
| the bandwidth: | |
| rectangular (uniform) | |
| triangular | |
| parabolic (epanechnikov) | |
| quartic (biweight) | |
| triweight | |
| cosine | |
| If *cumulative* is true, will return a cumulative distribution function. | |
| A StatisticsError will be raised if the data sequence is empty. | |
| Example | |
| ------- | |
| Given a sample of six data points, construct a continuous | |
| function that estimates the underlying probability density: | |
| >>> sample = [-2.1, -1.3, -0.4, 1.9, 5.1, 6.2] | |
| >>> f_hat = kde(sample, h=1.5) | |
| Compute the area under the curve: | |
| >>> area = sum(f_hat(x) for x in range(-20, 20)) | |
| >>> round(area, 4) | |
| 1.0 | |
| Plot the estimated probability density function at | |
| evenly spaced points from -6 to 10: | |
| >>> for x in range(-6, 11): | |
| ... density = f_hat(x) | |
| ... plot = ' ' * int(density * 400) + 'x' | |
| ... print(f'{x:2}: {density:.3f} {plot}') | |
| ... | |
| -6: 0.002 x | |
| -5: 0.009 x | |
| -4: 0.031 x | |
| -3: 0.070 x | |
| -2: 0.111 x | |
| -1: 0.125 x | |
| 0: 0.110 x | |
| 1: 0.086 x | |
| 2: 0.068 x | |
| 3: 0.059 x | |
| 4: 0.066 x | |
| 5: 0.082 x | |
| 6: 0.082 x | |
| 7: 0.058 x | |
| 8: 0.028 x | |
| 9: 0.009 x | |
| 10: 0.002 x | |
| Estimate P(4.5 < X <= 7.5), the probability that a new sample value | |
| will be between 4.5 and 7.5: | |
| >>> cdf = kde(sample, h=1.5, cumulative=True) | |
| >>> round(cdf(7.5) - cdf(4.5), 2) | |
| 0.22 | |
| References | |
| ---------- | |
| Kernel density estimation and its application: | |
| https://www.itm-conferences.org/articles/itmconf/pdf/2018/08/itmconf_sam2018_00037.pdf | |
| Kernel functions in common use: | |
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernel_(statistics)#kernel_functions_in_common_use | |
| Interactive graphical demonstration and exploration: | |
| https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/KernelDensityEstimation/ | |
| Kernel estimation of cumulative distribution function of a random variable with bounded support | |
| https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/207829/1/10.21307_stattrans-2016-037.pdf | |
| """ | |
| n = len(data) | |
| if not n: | |
| raise StatisticsError('Empty data sequence') | |
| if not isinstance(data[0], (int, float)): | |
| raise TypeError('Data sequence must contain ints or floats') | |
| if h <= 0.0: | |
| raise StatisticsError(f'Bandwidth h must be positive, not {h=!r}') | |
| kernel_spec = _kernel_specs.get(kernel) | |
| if kernel_spec is None: | |
| raise StatisticsError(f'Unknown kernel name: {kernel!r}') | |
| K = kernel_spec['pdf'] | |
| W = kernel_spec['cdf'] | |
| support = kernel_spec['support'] | |
| if support is None: | |
| def pdf(x): | |
| return sum(K((x - x_i) / h) for x_i in data) / (len(data) * h) | |
| def cdf(x): | |
| return sum(W((x - x_i) / h) for x_i in data) / len(data) | |
| else: | |
| sample = sorted(data) | |
| bandwidth = h * support | |
| def pdf(x): | |
| nonlocal n, sample | |
| if len(data) != n: | |
| sample = sorted(data) | |
| n = len(data) | |
| i = bisect_left(sample, x - bandwidth) | |
| j = bisect_right(sample, x + bandwidth) | |
| supported = sample[i : j] | |
| return sum(K((x - x_i) / h) for x_i in supported) / (n * h) | |
| def cdf(x): | |
| nonlocal n, sample | |
| if len(data) != n: | |
| sample = sorted(data) | |
| n = len(data) | |
| i = bisect_left(sample, x - bandwidth) | |
| j = bisect_right(sample, x + bandwidth) | |
| supported = sample[i : j] | |
| return sum((W((x - x_i) / h) for x_i in supported), i) / n | |
| if cumulative: | |
| cdf.__doc__ = f'CDF estimate with {h=!r} and {kernel=!r}' | |
| return cdf | |
| else: | |
| pdf.__doc__ = f'PDF estimate with {h=!r} and {kernel=!r}' | |
| return pdf | |
| def kde_random(data, h, kernel='normal', *, seed=None): | |
| """Return a function that makes a random selection from the estimated | |
| probability density function created by kde(data, h, kernel). | |
| Providing a *seed* allows reproducible selections within a single | |
| thread. The seed may be an integer, float, str, or bytes. | |
| A StatisticsError will be raised if the *data* sequence is empty. | |
| Example: | |
| >>> data = [-2.1, -1.3, -0.4, 1.9, 5.1, 6.2] | |
| >>> rand = kde_random(data, h=1.5, seed=8675309) | |
| >>> new_selections = [rand() for i in range(10)] | |
| >>> [round(x, 1) for x in new_selections] | |
| [0.7, 6.2, 1.2, 6.9, 7.0, 1.8, 2.5, -0.5, -1.8, 5.6] | |
| """ | |
| n = len(data) | |
| if not n: | |
| raise StatisticsError('Empty data sequence') | |
| if not isinstance(data[0], (int, float)): | |
| raise TypeError('Data sequence must contain ints or floats') | |
| if h <= 0.0: | |
| raise StatisticsError(f'Bandwidth h must be positive, not {h=!r}') | |
| kernel_spec = _kernel_specs.get(kernel) | |
| if kernel_spec is None: | |
| raise StatisticsError(f'Unknown kernel name: {kernel!r}') | |
| invcdf = kernel_spec['invcdf'] | |
| prng = _random.Random(seed) | |
| random = prng.random | |
| choice = prng.choice | |
| def rand(): | |
| return choice(data) + h * invcdf(random()) | |
| rand.__doc__ = f'Random KDE selection with {h=!r} and {kernel=!r}' | |
| return rand | |
| ## Quantiles ############################################################### | |
| # There is no one perfect way to compute quantiles. Here we offer | |
| # two methods that serve common needs. Most other packages | |
| # surveyed offered at least one or both of these two, making them | |
| # "standard" in the sense of "widely-adopted and reproducible". | |
| # They are also easy to explain, easy to compute manually, and have | |
| # straight-forward interpretations that aren't surprising. | |
| # The default method is known as "R6", "PERCENTILE.EXC", or "expected | |
| # value of rank order statistics". The alternative method is known as | |
| # "R7", "PERCENTILE.INC", or "mode of rank order statistics". | |
| # For sample data where there is a positive probability for values | |
| # beyond the range of the data, the R6 exclusive method is a | |
| # reasonable choice. Consider a random sample of nine values from a | |
| # population with a uniform distribution from 0.0 to 1.0. The | |
| # distribution of the third ranked sample point is described by | |
| # betavariate(alpha=3, beta=7) which has mode=0.250, median=0.286, and | |
| # mean=0.300. Only the latter (which corresponds with R6) gives the | |
| # desired cut point with 30% of the population falling below that | |
| # value, making it comparable to a result from an inv_cdf() function. | |
| # The R6 exclusive method is also idempotent. | |
| # For describing population data where the end points are known to | |
| # be included in the data, the R7 inclusive method is a reasonable | |
| # choice. Instead of the mean, it uses the mode of the beta | |
| # distribution for the interior points. Per Hyndman & Fan, "One nice | |
| # property is that the vertices of Q7(p) divide the range into n - 1 | |
| # intervals, and exactly 100p% of the intervals lie to the left of | |
| # Q7(p) and 100(1 - p)% of the intervals lie to the right of Q7(p)." | |
| # If needed, other methods could be added. However, for now, the | |
| # position is that fewer options make for easier choices and that | |
| # external packages can be used for anything more advanced. | |
| def quantiles(data, *, n=4, method='exclusive'): | |
| """Divide *data* into *n* continuous intervals with equal probability. | |
| Returns a list of (n - 1) cut points separating the intervals. | |
| Set *n* to 4 for quartiles (the default). Set *n* to 10 for deciles. | |
| Set *n* to 100 for percentiles which gives the 99 cuts points that | |
| separate *data* in to 100 equal sized groups. | |
| The *data* can be any iterable containing sample. | |
| The cut points are linearly interpolated between data points. | |
| If *method* is set to *inclusive*, *data* is treated as population | |
| data. The minimum value is treated as the 0th percentile and the | |
| maximum value is treated as the 100th percentile. | |
| """ | |
| if n < 1: | |
| raise StatisticsError('n must be at least 1') | |
| data = sorted(data) | |
| ld = len(data) | |
| if ld < 2: | |
| if ld == 1: | |
| return data * (n - 1) | |
| raise StatisticsError('must have at least one data point') | |
| if method == 'inclusive': | |
| m = ld - 1 | |
| result = [] | |
| for i in range(1, n): | |
| j, delta = divmod(i * m, n) | |
| interpolated = (data[j] * (n - delta) + data[j + 1] * delta) / n | |
| result.append(interpolated) | |
| return result | |
| if method == 'exclusive': | |
| m = ld + 1 | |
| result = [] | |
| for i in range(1, n): | |
| j = i * m // n # rescale i to m/n | |
| j = 1 if j < 1 else ld-1 if j > ld-1 else j # clamp to 1 .. ld-1 | |
| delta = i*m - j*n # exact integer math | |
| interpolated = (data[j - 1] * (n - delta) + data[j] * delta) / n | |
| result.append(interpolated) | |
| return result | |
| raise ValueError(f'Unknown method: {method!r}') | |
| ## Normal Distribution ##################################################### | |
| class NormalDist: | |
| "Normal distribution of a random variable" | |
| # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution | |
| # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance#Properties | |
| __slots__ = { | |
| '_mu': 'Arithmetic mean of a normal distribution', | |
| '_sigma': 'Standard deviation of a normal distribution', | |
| } | |
| def __init__(self, mu=0.0, sigma=1.0): | |
| "NormalDist where mu is the mean and sigma is the standard deviation." | |
| if sigma < 0.0: | |
| raise StatisticsError('sigma must be non-negative') | |
| self._mu = float(mu) | |
| self._sigma = float(sigma) | |
| @classmethod | |
| def from_samples(cls, data): | |
| "Make a normal distribution instance from sample data." | |
| return cls(*_mean_stdev(data)) | |
| def samples(self, n, *, seed=None): | |
| "Generate *n* samples for a given mean and standard deviation." | |
| rnd = random.random if seed is None else random.Random(seed).random | |
| inv_cdf = _normal_dist_inv_cdf | |
| mu = self._mu | |
| sigma = self._sigma | |
| return [inv_cdf(rnd(), mu, sigma) for _ in repeat(None, n)] | |
| def pdf(self, x): | |
| "Probability density function. P(x <= X < x+dx) / dx" | |
| sigma = self._sigma | |
| if not sigma: | |
| raise StatisticsError('pdf() not defined when sigma is zero') | |
| z = (x - self._mu) / sigma | |
| return exp(-0.5 * z * z) / (_SQRT2PI * sigma) | |
| def cdf(self, x): | |
| "Cumulative distribution function. P(X <= x)" | |
| if not self._sigma: | |
| raise StatisticsError('cdf() not defined when sigma is zero') | |
| return 0.5 * erfc((self._mu - x) / (self._sigma * _SQRT2)) | |
| def inv_cdf(self, p): | |
| """Inverse cumulative distribution function. x : P(X <= x) = p | |
| Finds the value of the random variable such that the probability of | |
| the variable being less than or equal to that value equals the given | |
| probability. | |
| This function is also called the percent point function or quantile | |
| function. | |
| """ | |
| if p <= 0.0 or p >= 1.0: | |
| raise StatisticsError('p must be in the range 0.0 < p < 1.0') | |
| return _normal_dist_inv_cdf(p, self._mu, self._sigma) | |
| def quantiles(self, n=4): | |
| """Divide into *n* continuous intervals with equal probability. | |
| Returns a list of (n - 1) cut points separating the intervals. | |
| Set *n* to 4 for quartiles (the default). Set *n* to 10 for deciles. | |
| Set *n* to 100 for percentiles which gives the 99 cuts points that | |
| separate the normal distribution in to 100 equal sized groups. | |
| """ | |
| return [self.inv_cdf(i / n) for i in range(1, n)] | |
| def overlap(self, other): | |
| """Compute the overlapping coefficient (OVL) between two normal distributions. | |
| Measures the agreement between two normal probability distributions. | |
| Returns a value between 0.0 and 1.0 giving the overlapping area in | |
| the two underlying probability density functions. | |
| >>> N1 = NormalDist(2.4, 1.6) | |
| >>> N2 = NormalDist(3.2, 2.0) | |
| >>> N1.overlap(N2) | |
| 0.8035050657330205 | |
| """ | |
| # See: "The overlapping coefficient as a measure of agreement between | |
| # probability distributions and point estimation of the overlap of two | |
| # normal densities" -- Henry F. Inman and Edwin L. Bradley Jr | |
| # http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610928908830127 | |
| if not isinstance(other, NormalDist): | |
| raise TypeError('Expected another NormalDist instance') | |
| X, Y = self, other | |
| if (Y._sigma, Y._mu) < (X._sigma, X._mu): # sort to assure commutativity | |
| X, Y = Y, X | |
| X_var, Y_var = X.variance, Y.variance | |
| if not X_var or not Y_var: | |
| raise StatisticsError('overlap() not defined when sigma is zero') | |
| dv = Y_var - X_var | |
| dm = fabs(Y._mu - X._mu) | |
| if not dv: | |
| return erfc(dm / (2.0 * X._sigma * _SQRT2)) | |
| a = X._mu * Y_var - Y._mu * X_var | |
| b = X._sigma * Y._sigma * sqrt(dm * dm + dv * log(Y_var / X_var)) | |
| x1 = (a + b) / dv | |
| x2 = (a - b) / dv | |
| return 1.0 - (fabs(Y.cdf(x1) - X.cdf(x1)) + fabs(Y.cdf(x2) - X.cdf(x2))) | |
| def zscore(self, x): | |
| """Compute the Standard Score. (x - mean) / stdev | |
| Describes *x* in terms of the number of standard deviations | |
| above or below the mean of the normal distribution. | |
| """ | |
| # https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/z-score/ | |
| if not self._sigma: | |
| raise StatisticsError('zscore() not defined when sigma is zero') | |
| return (x - self._mu) / self._sigma | |
| @property | |
| def mean(self): | |
| "Arithmetic mean of the normal distribution." | |
| return self._mu | |
| @property | |
| def median(self): | |
| "Return the median of the normal distribution" | |
| return self._mu | |
| @property | |
| def mode(self): | |
| """Return the mode of the normal distribution | |
| The mode is the value x where which the probability density | |
| function (pdf) takes its maximum value. | |
| """ | |
| return self._mu | |
| @property | |
| def stdev(self): | |
| "Standard deviation of the normal distribution." | |
| return self._sigma | |
| @property | |
| def variance(self): | |
| "Square of the standard deviation." | |
| return self._sigma * self._sigma | |
| def __add__(x1, x2): | |
| """Add a constant or another NormalDist instance. | |
| If *other* is a constant, translate mu by the constant, | |
| leaving sigma unchanged. | |
| If *other* is a NormalDist, add both the means and the variances. | |
| Mathematically, this works only if the two distributions are | |
| independent or if they are jointly normally distributed. | |
| """ | |
| if isinstance(x2, NormalDist): | |
| return NormalDist(x1._mu + x2._mu, hypot(x1._sigma, x2._sigma)) | |
| return NormalDist(x1._mu + x2, x1._sigma) | |
| def __sub__(x1, x2): | |
| """Subtract a constant or another NormalDist instance. | |
| If *other* is a constant, translate by the constant mu, | |
| leaving sigma unchanged. | |
| If *other* is a NormalDist, subtract the means and add the variances. | |
| Mathematically, this works only if the two distributions are | |
| independent or if they are jointly normally distributed. | |
| """ | |
| if isinstance(x2, NormalDist): | |
| return NormalDist(x1._mu - x2._mu, hypot(x1._sigma, x2._sigma)) | |
| return NormalDist(x1._mu - x2, x1._sigma) | |
| def __mul__(x1, x2): | |
| """Multiply both mu and sigma by a constant. | |
| Used for rescaling, perhaps to change measurement units. | |
| Sigma is scaled with the absolute value of the constant. | |
| """ | |
| return NormalDist(x1._mu * x2, x1._sigma * fabs(x2)) | |
| def __truediv__(x1, x2): | |
| """Divide both mu and sigma by a constant. | |
| Used for rescaling, perhaps to change measurement units. | |
| Sigma is scaled with the absolute value of the constant. | |
| """ | |
| return NormalDist(x1._mu / x2, x1._sigma / fabs(x2)) | |
| def __pos__(x1): | |
| "Return a copy of the instance." | |
| return NormalDist(x1._mu, x1._sigma) | |
| def __neg__(x1): | |
| "Negates mu while keeping sigma the same." | |
| return NormalDist(-x1._mu, x1._sigma) | |
| __radd__ = __add__ | |
| def __rsub__(x1, x2): | |
| "Subtract a NormalDist from a constant or another NormalDist." | |
| return -(x1 - x2) | |
| __rmul__ = __mul__ | |
| def __eq__(x1, x2): | |
| "Two NormalDist objects are equal if their mu and sigma are both equal." | |
| if not isinstance(x2, NormalDist): | |
| return NotImplemented | |
| return x1._mu == x2._mu and x1._sigma == x2._sigma | |
| def __hash__(self): | |
| "NormalDist objects hash equal if their mu and sigma are both equal." | |
| return hash((self._mu, self._sigma)) | |
| def __repr__(self): | |
| return f'{type(self).__name__}(mu={self._mu!r}, sigma={self._sigma!r})' | |
| def __getstate__(self): | |
| return self._mu, self._sigma | |
| def __setstate__(self, state): | |
| self._mu, self._sigma = state | |
| ## Private utilities ####################################################### | |
| def _sum(data): | |
| """_sum(data) -> (type, sum, count) | |
| Return a high-precision sum of the given numeric data as a fraction, | |
| together with the type to be converted to and the count of items. | |
| Examples | |
| -------- | |
| >>> _sum([3, 2.25, 4.5, -0.5, 0.25]) | |
| (<class 'float'>, Fraction(19, 2), 5) | |
| Some sources of round-off error will be avoided: | |
| # Built-in sum returns zero. | |
| >>> _sum([1e50, 1, -1e50] * 1000) | |
| (<class 'float'>, Fraction(1000, 1), 3000) | |
| Fractions and Decimals are also supported: | |
| >>> from fractions import Fraction as F | |
| >>> _sum([F(2, 3), F(7, 5), F(1, 4), F(5, 6)]) | |
| (<class 'fractions.Fraction'>, Fraction(63, 20), 4) | |
| >>> from decimal import Decimal as D | |
| >>> data = [D("0.1375"), D("0.2108"), D("0.3061"), D("0.0419")] | |
| >>> _sum(data) | |
| (<class 'decimal.Decimal'>, Fraction(6963, 10000), 4) | |
| Mixed types are currently treated as an error, except that int is | |
| allowed. | |
| """ | |
| count = 0 | |
| types = set() | |
| partials = {} | |
| for typ, values in groupby(data, type): | |
| types.add(typ) | |
| for n, d in map(_exact_ratio, values): | |
| count += 1 | |
| partials[d] = partials.get(d, 0) + n | |
| if None in partials: | |
| # The sum will be a NAN or INF. We can ignore all the finite | |
| # partials, and just look at this special one. | |
| total = partials[None] | |
| assert not _isfinite(total) | |
| else: | |
| # Sum all the partial sums using builtin sum. | |
| total = sum(Fraction(n, d) for d, n in partials.items()) | |
| T = reduce(_coerce, types, int) # or raise TypeError | |
| return (T, total, count) | |
| def _ss(data, c=None): | |
| """Return the exact mean and sum of square deviations of sequence data. | |
| Calculations are done in a single pass, allowing the input to be an iterator. | |
| If given *c* is used the mean; otherwise, it is calculated from the data. | |
| Use the *c* argument with care, as it can lead to garbage results. | |
| """ | |
| if c is not None: | |
| T, ssd, count = _sum((d := x - c) * d for x in data) | |
| return (T, ssd, c, count) | |
| count = 0 | |
| types = set() | |
| sx_partials = defaultdict(int) | |
| sxx_partials = defaultdict(int) | |
| for typ, values in groupby(data, type): | |
| types.add(typ) | |
| for n, d in map(_exact_ratio, values): | |
| count += 1 | |
| sx_partials[d] += n | |
| sxx_partials[d] += n * n | |
| if not count: | |
| ssd = c = Fraction(0) | |
| elif None in sx_partials: | |
| # The sum will be a NAN or INF. We can ignore all the finite | |
| # partials, and just look at this special one. | |
| ssd = c = sx_partials[None] | |
| assert not _isfinite(ssd) | |
| else: | |
| sx = sum(Fraction(n, d) for d, n in sx_partials.items()) | |
| sxx = sum(Fraction(n, d*d) for d, n in sxx_partials.items()) | |
| # This formula has poor numeric properties for floats, | |
| # but with fractions it is exact. | |
| ssd = (count * sxx - sx * sx) / count | |
| c = sx / count | |
| T = reduce(_coerce, types, int) # or raise TypeError | |
| return (T, ssd, c, count) | |
| def _isfinite(x): | |
| try: | |
| return x.is_finite() # Likely a Decimal. | |
| except AttributeError: | |
| return math.isfinite(x) # Coerces to float first. | |
| def _coerce(T, S): | |
| """Coerce types T and S to a common type, or raise TypeError. | |
| Coercion rules are currently an implementation detail. See the CoerceTest | |
| test class in test_statistics for details. | |
| """ | |
| # See http://bugs.python.org/issue24068. | |
| assert T is not bool, "initial type T is bool" | |
| # If the types are the same, no need to coerce anything. Put this | |
| # first, so that the usual case (no coercion needed) happens as soon | |
| # as possible. | |
| if T is S: return T | |
| # Mixed int & other coerce to the other type. | |
| if S is int or S is bool: return T | |
| if T is int: return S | |
| # If one is a (strict) subclass of the other, coerce to the subclass. | |
| if issubclass(S, T): return S | |
| if issubclass(T, S): return T | |
| # Ints coerce to the other type. | |
| if issubclass(T, int): return S | |
| if issubclass(S, int): return T | |
| # Mixed fraction & float coerces to float (or float subclass). | |
| if issubclass(T, Fraction) and issubclass(S, float): | |
| return S | |
| if issubclass(T, float) and issubclass(S, Fraction): | |
| return T | |
| # Any other combination is disallowed. | |
| msg = "don't know how to coerce %s and %s" | |
| raise TypeError(msg % (T.__name__, S.__name__)) | |
| def _exact_ratio(x): | |
| """Return Real number x to exact (numerator, denominator) pair. | |
| >>> _exact_ratio(0.25) | |
| (1, 4) | |
| x is expected to be an int, Fraction, Decimal or float. | |
| """ | |
| try: | |
| return x.as_integer_ratio() | |
| except AttributeError: | |
| pass | |
| except (OverflowError, ValueError): | |
| # float NAN or INF. | |
| assert not _isfinite(x) | |
| return (x, None) | |
| try: | |
| # x may be an Integral ABC. | |
| return (x.numerator, x.denominator) | |
| except AttributeError: | |
| msg = f"can't convert type '{type(x).__name__}' to numerator/denominator" | |
| raise TypeError(msg) | |
| def _convert(value, T): | |
| """Convert value to given numeric type T.""" | |
| if type(value) is T: | |
| # This covers the cases where T is Fraction, or where value is | |
| # a NAN or INF (Decimal or float). | |
| return value | |
| if issubclass(T, int) and value.denominator != 1: | |
| T = float | |
| try: | |
| # FIXME: what do we do if this overflows? | |
| return T(value) | |
| except TypeError: | |
| if issubclass(T, Decimal): | |
| return T(value.numerator) / T(value.denominator) | |
| else: | |
| raise | |
| def _fail_neg(values, errmsg='negative value'): | |
| """Iterate over values, failing if any are less than zero.""" | |
| for x in values: | |
| if x < 0: | |
| raise StatisticsError(errmsg) | |
| yield x | |
| def _rank(data, /, *, key=None, reverse=False, ties='average', start=1) -> list[float]: | |
| """Rank order a dataset. The lowest value has rank 1. | |
| Ties are averaged so that equal values receive the same rank: | |
| >>> data = [31, 56, 31, 25, 75, 18] | |
| >>> _rank(data) | |
| [3.5, 5.0, 3.5, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0] | |
| The operation is idempotent: | |
| >>> _rank([3.5, 5.0, 3.5, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0]) | |
| [3.5, 5.0, 3.5, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0] | |
| It is possible to rank the data in reverse order so that the | |
| highest value has rank 1. Also, a key-function can extract | |
| the field to be ranked: | |
| >>> goals = [('eagles', 45), ('bears', 48), ('lions', 44)] | |
| >>> _rank(goals, key=itemgetter(1), reverse=True) | |
| [2.0, 1.0, 3.0] | |
| Ranks are conventionally numbered starting from one; however, | |
| setting *start* to zero allows the ranks to be used as array indices: | |
| >>> prize = ['Gold', 'Silver', 'Bronze', 'Certificate'] | |
| >>> scores = [8.1, 7.3, 9.4, 8.3] | |
| >>> [prize[int(i)] for i in _rank(scores, start=0, reverse=True)] | |
| ['Bronze', 'Certificate', 'Gold', 'Silver'] | |
| """ | |
| # If this function becomes public at some point, more thought | |
| # needs to be given to the signature. A list of ints is | |
| # plausible when ties is "min" or "max". When ties is "average", | |
| # either list[float] or list[Fraction] is plausible. | |
| # Default handling of ties matches scipy.stats.mstats.spearmanr. | |
| if ties != 'average': | |
| raise ValueError(f'Unknown tie resolution method: {ties!r}') | |
| if key is not None: | |
| data = map(key, data) | |
| val_pos = sorted(zip(data, count()), reverse=reverse) | |
| i = start - 1 | |
| result = [0] * len(val_pos) | |
| for _, g in groupby(val_pos, key=itemgetter(0)): | |
| group = list(g) | |
| size = len(group) | |
| rank = i + (size + 1) / 2 | |
| for value, orig_pos in group: | |
| result[orig_pos] = rank | |
| i += size | |
| return result | |
| def _integer_sqrt_of_frac_rto(n: int, m: int) -> int: | |
| """Square root of n/m, rounded to the nearest integer using round-to-odd.""" | |
| # Reference: https://www.lri.fr/~melquion/doc/05-imacs17_1-expose.pdf | |
| a = math.isqrt(n // m) | |
| return a | (a*a*m != n) | |
| # For 53 bit precision floats, the bit width used in | |
| # _float_sqrt_of_frac() is 109. | |
| _sqrt_bit_width: int = 2 * sys.float_info.mant_dig + 3 | |
| def _float_sqrt_of_frac(n: int, m: int) -> float: | |
| """Square root of n/m as a float, correctly rounded.""" | |
| # See principle and proof sketch at: https://bugs.python.org/msg407078 | |
| q = (n.bit_length() - m.bit_length() - _sqrt_bit_width) // 2 | |
| if q >= 0: | |
| numerator = _integer_sqrt_of_frac_rto(n, m << 2 * q) << q | |
| denominator = 1 | |
| else: | |
| numerator = _integer_sqrt_of_frac_rto(n << -2 * q, m) | |
| denominator = 1 << -q | |
| return numerator / denominator # Convert to float | |
| def _decimal_sqrt_of_frac(n: int, m: int) -> Decimal: | |
| """Square root of n/m as a Decimal, correctly rounded.""" | |
| # Premise: For decimal, computing (n/m).sqrt() can be off | |
| # by 1 ulp from the correctly rounded result. | |
| # Method: Check the result, moving up or down a step if needed. | |
| if n <= 0: | |
| if not n: | |
| return Decimal('0.0') | |
| n, m = -n, -m | |
| root = (Decimal(n) / Decimal(m)).sqrt() | |
| nr, dr = root.as_integer_ratio() | |
| plus = root.next_plus() | |
| np, dp = plus.as_integer_ratio() | |
| # test: n / m > ((root + plus) / 2) ** 2 | |
| if 4 * n * (dr*dp)**2 > m * (dr*np + dp*nr)**2: | |
| return plus | |
| minus = root.next_minus() | |
| nm, dm = minus.as_integer_ratio() | |
| # test: n / m < ((root + minus) / 2) ** 2 | |
| if 4 * n * (dr*dm)**2 < m * (dr*nm + dm*nr)**2: | |
| return minus | |
| return root | |
| def _mean_stdev(data): | |
| """In one pass, compute the mean and sample standard deviation as floats.""" | |
| T, ss, xbar, n = _ss(data) | |
| if n < 2: | |
| raise StatisticsError('stdev requires at least two data points') | |
| mss = ss / (n - 1) | |
| try: | |
| return float(xbar), _float_sqrt_of_frac(mss.numerator, mss.denominator) | |
| except AttributeError: | |
| # Handle Nans and Infs gracefully | |
| return float(xbar), float(xbar) / float(ss) | |
| def _sqrtprod(x: float, y: float) -> float: | |
| "Return sqrt(x * y) computed with improved accuracy and without overflow/underflow." | |
| h = sqrt(x * y) | |
| if not isfinite(h): | |
| if isinf(h) and not isinf(x) and not isinf(y): | |
| # Finite inputs overflowed, so scale down, and recompute. | |
| scale = 2.0 ** -512 # sqrt(1 / sys.float_info.max) | |
| return _sqrtprod(scale * x, scale * y) / scale | |
| return h | |
| if not h: | |
| if x and y: | |
| # Non-zero inputs underflowed, so scale up, and recompute. | |
| # Scale: 1 / sqrt(sys.float_info.min * sys.float_info.epsilon) | |
| scale = 2.0 ** 537 | |
| return _sqrtprod(scale * x, scale * y) / scale | |
| return h | |
| # Improve accuracy with a differential correction. | |
| # https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Maclaurin+series+sqrt%28h**2+%2B+x%29+at+x%3D0 | |
| d = sumprod((x, h), (y, -h)) | |
| return h + d / (2.0 * h) | |
| def _normal_dist_inv_cdf(p, mu, sigma): | |
| # There is no closed-form solution to the inverse CDF for the normal | |
| # distribution, so we use a rational approximation instead: | |
| # Wichura, M.J. (1988). "Algorithm AS241: The Percentage Points of the | |
| # Normal Distribution". Applied Statistics. Blackwell Publishing. 37 | |
| # (3): 477–484. doi:10.2307/2347330. JSTOR 2347330. | |
| q = p - 0.5 | |
| if fabs(q) <= 0.425: | |
| r = 0.180625 - q * q | |
| # Hash sum: 55.88319_28806_14901_4439 | |
| num = (((((((2.50908_09287_30122_6727e+3 * r + | |
| 3.34305_75583_58812_8105e+4) * r + | |
| 6.72657_70927_00870_0853e+4) * r + | |
| 4.59219_53931_54987_1457e+4) * r + | |
| 1.37316_93765_50946_1125e+4) * r + | |
| 1.97159_09503_06551_4427e+3) * r + | |
| 1.33141_66789_17843_7745e+2) * r + | |
| 3.38713_28727_96366_6080e+0) * q | |
| den = (((((((5.22649_52788_52854_5610e+3 * r + | |
| 2.87290_85735_72194_2674e+4) * r + | |
| 3.93078_95800_09271_0610e+4) * r + | |
| 2.12137_94301_58659_5867e+4) * r + | |
| 5.39419_60214_24751_1077e+3) * r + | |
| 6.87187_00749_20579_0830e+2) * r + | |
| 4.23133_30701_60091_1252e+1) * r + | |
| 1.0) | |
| x = num / den | |
| return mu + (x * sigma) | |
| r = p if q <= 0.0 else 1.0 - p | |
| r = sqrt(-log(r)) | |
| if r <= 5.0: | |
| r = r - 1.6 | |
| # Hash sum: 49.33206_50330_16102_89036 | |
| num = (((((((7.74545_01427_83414_07640e-4 * r + | |
| 2.27238_44989_26918_45833e-2) * r + | |
| 2.41780_72517_74506_11770e-1) * r + | |
| 1.27045_82524_52368_38258e+0) * r + | |
| 3.64784_83247_63204_60504e+0) * r + | |
| 5.76949_72214_60691_40550e+0) * r + | |
| 4.63033_78461_56545_29590e+0) * r + | |
| 1.42343_71107_49683_57734e+0) | |
| den = (((((((1.05075_00716_44416_84324e-9 * r + | |
| 5.47593_80849_95344_94600e-4) * r + | |
| 1.51986_66563_61645_71966e-2) * r + | |
| 1.48103_97642_74800_74590e-1) * r + | |
| 6.89767_33498_51000_04550e-1) * r + | |
| 1.67638_48301_83803_84940e+0) * r + | |
| 2.05319_16266_37758_82187e+0) * r + | |
| 1.0) | |
| else: | |
| r = r - 5.0 | |
| # Hash sum: 47.52583_31754_92896_71629 | |
| num = (((((((2.01033_43992_92288_13265e-7 * r + | |
| 2.71155_55687_43487_57815e-5) * r + | |
| 1.24266_09473_88078_43860e-3) * r + | |
| 2.65321_89526_57612_30930e-2) * r + | |
| 2.96560_57182_85048_91230e-1) * r + | |
| 1.78482_65399_17291_33580e+0) * r + | |
| 5.46378_49111_64114_36990e+0) * r + | |
| 6.65790_46435_01103_77720e+0) | |
| den = (((((((2.04426_31033_89939_78564e-15 * r + | |
| 1.42151_17583_16445_88870e-7) * r + | |
| 1.84631_83175_10054_68180e-5) * r + | |
| 7.86869_13114_56132_59100e-4) * r + | |
| 1.48753_61290_85061_48525e-2) * r + | |
| 1.36929_88092_27358_05310e-1) * r + | |
| 5.99832_20655_58879_37690e-1) * r + | |
| 1.0) | |
| x = num / den | |
| if q < 0.0: | |
| x = -x | |
| return mu + (x * sigma) | |
| # If available, use C implementation | |
| try: | |
| from _statistics import _normal_dist_inv_cdf | |
| except ImportError: | |
| pass |